Win-Win in Iraq

Wretchard, at the "Belmont Club," gives us some perspective of how the Iraqi elections are shaping up. In reading this Financial Times article that he links to, I was impressed by an extremely politically shrewd, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

A black-turbaned Shia cleric drove through the streets of the southern Baghdad district of al-Amel on Saturday, carrying a loudspeaker and mocking the insurgents who scrawled anti-election slogans on the neighbourhood's walls.

"Let those who wrote this show their faces, if they are men," residents quoted him as saying, as two dozen armed supporters followed his motorcade on foot, painting over graffiti that threatened to "cut off the heads" of voters.

"Come and vote," the cleric said to passersby. "We will protect you."

It was a rare display of militancy by one of the pro-establishment Shia clerics, who have so far strongly discouraged any action by their followers against predominantly Sunni insurgents, lest it trigger a civil war.

However, with attacks against the Shia on the increase, and the strong likelihood that the Shia parties will dominate Iraq's first elected postwar government, clerical resistance against direct anti-insurgent action may be wavering.

In the past, Shia-dominated parties and a few mosque-centred networks co-operated quietly with the US military in the gathering of intelligence, but the clergy kept its distance from the US military in the name of national unity.

When bombers - accused of being Sunni insurgents - struck at Shia holy sites in August 2003 and February 2004, many Shia clerics saved their strongest criticism for the coalition authorities, who they said had failed to protect them from attack. However, insurgent threats against forthcoming elections, which have been strongly endorsed by senior Shia scholars such as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, may be breaking down the clergy's resolve to stay aloof.

Residents of al-Amel say the anti-election graffiti marked the first time that insurgents had directly threatened them personally as Iraqi citizens exercising their rights - as opposed to threats against "collabor-ators" with the US military or the government.

Religious Shia had already been split over violence in Latifiya, a Sunni enclave that lies on the main highway south of Baghdad leading to the Shia holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. Dozens of Shia, from clergy to army and National Guard recruits, have been killed by Sunni ultra-puritans while driving through Latifiya.

Given that Shia Muslims dominate the population in Iraq, the cleric could benefit greatly from an election. On one side, by supporting and participating in the elections driven by the Coalition and the Iraqi Interim Government, he can lead with their full support and backing. On the other side, with the fear of looking like a United States puppet, he is reaching out to war weary Iraqis claiming that a vote for him is the quickest way for Iraqis to get their country back:

Shiite empowerment is just one facet of the clerical campaign, and it is usually couched in coded language. More common are visceral appeals to an electorate that has grown fatigued and disillusioned with the carnage of war.

...At one end of the road, banners promised a new era of stability with the vote. At the other, they cast the election as the surest way to end an occupation that has grown increasingly unpopular.

"Brother Iraqis, the future of Iraq is in your hands. Elections are the ideal way to expel the occupier from Iraq," one white banner proclaimed. "Brother Iraqi, your vote in the elections is better than a bullet in battle," an adjacent sign read.

..."Not voting is a reward for terrorism," one read. "If you don't consider it a religious duty, then your national duty calls on you to vote," another intoned. More bluntly, one read: "Voting honors the blood of martyrs."

At times, the slogans insist on blind loyalty to Sistani. "Everyone is with you," a banner in the sacred city of Najaf proclaimed.

"The clergy are advocating elections 100 percent," said Sami Shamousi, the prayer leader of a Shiite community center in downtown Baghdad. "It has become a religious responsibility for us to encourage participation in the elections."

These statements should be an encouragement to all who supported Coalition efforts in Iraq. There is a strong leader within the most populous group in Iraq who understands that this can be a win-win situation. The United States gets what they were after since the strategic planning of the invasion: a free and democratic Iraq that will finish the job of cleansing Iraq of foreign terrorists and Saddam's henchmen. Most importantly though, the Iraqis get their country back sooner rather than later.

Posted by 10 fingers 6 strings at December 7, 2004 08:34 PM | TrackBack