Iran Waits

Iranian student leader, Akbar Atri, has fled Iran because the Irainian government has accused him of organizing revolution. Four years ago, this courageous man had been arrested, badly beaten and ordered by a court to pay his attackers for his crime of supporting a referendum against the Islamic theocracy:

The recent charges against him are not Mr. Atri's first brush with the law. In the interview yesterday he said that in 2000 he was beaten so badly by the plainclothes religious police known as the Bassij that his jaw was broken and he lost two teeth. When his case was finally heard by a judge, the court ruled that he owed his attackers money for assaulting them.

"The judge ruled that I owed the traditional Islamic penalty, the price of a camel," he said. "When I finally heard the sentence I thought that camels have become very expensive."

However, Akbar Atri has high hopes of seeing a non-violent, democratic revolution in Iran. He has looked towards recent events in the Ukraine as inspiration:

Mr. Atri said that organizers of the referendum also had for-now-silent support from some members of Iran's military and security services. Support from within such institutions is critical to the success of nonviolent movements seeking to topple dictators. It took not only an unprecedented coalition of groups in Ukraine, for example, to overturn November's elections there, but also the agreement of the state police and military not to suppress the crowds of protesters who stormed Kiev in the aftermath of the fixed runoff vote.

Mr. Atri said he was watching closely the developments in Kiev. "I am sure many people in our military and other government agencies support this movement," Mr. Atri said. "This is not going to affect only Iran, but also the region. Just like the Ukraine, this will work. We announced before, that we are longing for a nonviolent movement. The Ukrainian movement proved the nonviolent approach was successful. But if our movement is violent then it will usher in a government worse than we have now."

Noted above, the key to the non-violent demonstrations that occurred in the Ukraine hinged on the decision made by both the Ukrainian military, and the police, not to fire upon demonstrators. The current Ukrainian leadership is a bureaucratic oligarchy driven more by Russian rubles then hard-core ideology. The Ukrainian pseudo-but not-very-democratic system had enough teeth in it to give the democratic movement just enough legal justification to demand and secure a recount--this time with most of the world watching for shenanigans. When the opportunity was presented to squash the intensifying democratic movement, which would remove them from power, they blinked and the opposition received the recount that would secure their victory.

Iran, sadly, is a much different case. Since 1979, the mullahs have been building their international Islamic revolution inside and outside of Iran, not with resident Persians, but with extremist Arabs:

After 1979 revolution, many Arabs immigrated to Iran, received military, political and religious training, and were sent to other countries to disseminate propaganda for the Islamic Republic and take part in terrorist acts. A group of them are appointed Sepah Badr and other Shi’ite areas in Iran and have been settled in Arab region of Iran. Many of them are appointed to the Special Forces that are under direct control of Ayatollah Khamenei. During recent weeks, the Arab groups have taken part in suppression of Iranian students. They have been organized in security forces and so-called “civil dressed” forces. Their military bases are in Tehran, Qom and the Iran–Iraq border region, and they are under the supervision of Ayatollah Khamenei and Rafsanjani. Arab groups from Sudan, Lebanon, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Palestine are sent to their countries or western countries after training.

These Arabs infiltrate, in plain clothes, demonstrations against the Islamic government, attempting to find its leaders. Once they are identified, the Arab men arrest and/or beat (usually both) these student leaders on the spot. A non-violent transfer of power is too late, as the Iranian government has already demonstrated their willingness to severely suppress any challenge to their authority. Unlike the ideologically lacking bureaucrats in the Ukraine, the mullahs, on their mission to implement Allah's will upon an unrepentant mankind, will fight to the death.

Where will Atri and his fellow democrats find help? He desperately looks to the West:

For now, Mr. Atri said, the greatest need from the West was solidarity. When asked about American government support at first, he answered the question in terms of support from the world.

"I expect people of the world to support the democratic movement in Iran," he said. "Right now, the Iranian people are suffering from a lack of information. The 20 Iranian satellite networks, mostly controlled by the monarchists, are not helping the referendum. I think the American media should give the message of the Iranian people to the world."

Someone better tell Atri not to read the Guardian or the NY Times. Again, an oppressed people look to the West for help in their quest for freedom against suppression--will the Left, yet again, turn away? I'll bet the price of a camel they will.