Bush and Putin Meet

Today President Bush and Vladimir Putin sat down in the middle of an expanding dust cloud caused by recent events: Ukrainian independence, Putin's growing stranglehold on Russia's already tenuous democracy, Bush's strong rebuke and Russia's support for Iranian nuclear ambitions. I've read a lot of commentary that hopes President Bush uses the opportunity to set Putin straight, but when dealing with Russia, this is a time where I believe some true "nuance" is needed.

This ABC article describes the tensions involved in this summit:

High on the meeting agenda are U.S. concerns over Putin's moves to solidify his power and clamp down on civil and press liberties. Also drawing U.S. alarm are Putin's attempts to influence elections in Ukraine, Russian arms sales to Syria and the Kremlin's close ties to Iran.

But Bush seeks to balance those concerns with a desire for continued cooperation on security issues such as terrorism, weapons proliferation and energy.

For their part, Russian officials dislike what they see as U.S. meddling in their internal affairs and in former Soviet republics where Moscow's influence is waning as some new leaders look westward. Putin argues that the Russian people are accustomed to strong rule by czars and a large government role in everyday life.

In looking at Russia, it is important that we look past the make-up to see her true face. After the failed coup and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia made tremendous gains in moving towards creating a democratic government. The progress that was made was considerable only in that they had come from such a deeply totalitarian police-state. However, a large delta doesn't give you a functioning, democratic government. As we have seen with the former regime in Iraq, ex-KGB and communist leaders with blood on their hands reformed in the Russian underground as the Russian mafia. This was partially defensive in nature as they sought self-preservation, but also offensive in that they had always hoped that they could regain control of Russia.

So Putin, as one of the KGB's own, became President over a country that sits on one of the largest nuclear arsenals in the world. They are being threatening internally and externally though a festering Islamic element in Chechnya, diminishing influence in world politics and a staggering, corruption based economy.

Russia's poor economic situation causes them to seek out old partners, often of dubious character, to sell what Russia makes best--arms. However, Putin knows that any Russian weapons or nukes sold to Islamic countries could end up in their back yard. Many, including me, tensed up as Putin sat down with our favorite Mullahs to reassert that Russia would continue to support Iran's "peaceful" nuclear ambitions. However, in looking back, I believe that meeting was intended to be more of a warning to America. Putin has lost out on some major issues to the U.S. recently; like Iraq and, more directly, in the Ukraine. It is no coincidence that Putin made this announcement prior to meeting with President Bush because, in order to protect Russia's position, Putin needs to put some more chips back on table with which to bargain. Putin has clearly reasserted that he will not allow the U.S. to wag any fingers at him, while at the same time reinforcing the reality that Russia is a strategic neccessity with whom we need to work as partners.

Unfortunately, democratic reform in Russia is far off. Their nuclear arsenal in the wrong hands is scary for us, but also terrifying for them in a man-bites-dog scenario. Even though Russia could be burned by Iranian nukes, we have a lot more to lose in a region that is starting to develop in our favor. Putin is far from a benevolent character--he got what he deserved in Iraq and the Ukraine, however expect Bush to tone down the democractic reform talk as it is clear that Russia is an essential partner in fighting our most dangerous enemy: Fundamentalist Islamic Fascism. This makes for strange bedfellows, however, until America can get things stabilized on the ground in Iraq and Afghanistan, we must continue to engage in PDA (Public Displays of Affection) with some loose women: Russia, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.

UPDATE: Marc Schulman at American Future has some highlights from the Bush/Putin press conference.