Revolution in the Middle East is Truly History in the Making

Michael Totten, who was on hand witnessing the Cedar Revolution first hand, sees some significant developments in Syria that may be pointing the way to another toppled domino. Towards the end of the article, Michael puts the forces in play behind these Middle Eastern vissitudes in their rightful place:

Whatever connection exists between a rising imperfect democracy in Iraq and a renascent democratic movement in Lebanon is debatable and indirect at best. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad didn’t trigger the upheaval in Beirut. The assasination of Rafik Hariri did. Still, when the U.S. ordered Bashar Assad to withdraw Syrian troops he said “I am not Saddam Hussein. I want to cooperate.” He did. Now he’s screwed.

Very rarely in history can one point to a sole cause for a particular effect. What caused Germany to adopt Fascism on the eve of the biggest war the world had ever seen? What caused the Southern States to secede and ultimately take up arms against their own countrymen in the Civil War? What was the cause of U.S. military intervention in Vietnam, Korea or the Gulf War?

These are all questions in history that have answers which are far more complex than any bumper sticker slogans. To a generation raised on multiple choice questions and sound bytes, it is rare occurrence to find well reasoned answers to historical events that are often muddled, grey, confusing and often contradictory. It takes a lot of critical thought and a stomach for the imperfect to accept these this at the expense of a comforting talking point.

One absolute statement I can make is this: history is dynamic. It is a constantly shifting paradigm where the players, rules and commonly held axioms are constantly being tested moment by moment. If one is a major decision maker in this playing field, they must constantly make decisions and create policies that, in a Hobbesian fashion, best ensure their chances for success. The difficulty of leadership is having the discernment and wisdom to envision how this enormous multi-factored model will play out, and how to get others to believe that you are right in pursuing your given course of action. This is true for Presidents, religious figures, business leaders, football coaches, and even those who are parents.

So, revolution is now churning in the Middle East. Five short years ago, there was wasn't a single shred of democratic hope anywhere to be found. Then three major events occurred that changed events there forever: September 11th, Successful U.S. Invasion of Afghanistan and Liberation from the Taliban, and the Successful U.S. Invasion and Liberation of Iraq from Saddam Hussein.

I completely agree with Michael Totten's well thought out statement that there is a lot of mud between the recent successes in Iraq and the eventual pullout of Syrian troops from occupied Lebanon. I must ask my bedfollows who supported this invasion to resist the tempting, but well intentioned, conclusive triumphalism that could paint our better reasoned argument into a corner.

My views and arguments in favor of the war in Iraq were and are thus: The Middle East was a festering pool of anti-American and anti-westernism that needed a radical change with years of diplomacy and carrot dangling proving flacid on the morning of September 11th. President Bush, as the leader of our wounded nation, was faced with the most daunting task facing an American President since the Civil War; history was previously unprecedented in combating ideologically driven enemies trying to achieve their goals through terrorism. There would be no single option available to him that would provide the United States with an immediate remidiation against this determined foe.

The next moves the United States would take during the coming years could only, at best, put it in a more beneficial position to achieve eventual victory; stepping stones, if you will. Afghanistan proved a slam dunk in the midst of premature quagmire predictions, and an elected government would take power almost three years after the Taliban ran for the hills. Bin Laden and Mullah Omar would remain elusive, however their base of operations was destroyed and our T.V. screens were filled with men shaving their beards, women shedding their burqas and children dancing to previously banned music.

Yet, there was still a stranglehold of tyranny on the Middle East, which, I'm convinced, was the primary food feeding the anti-Americanism monster. The "purified" and dangerously fundamentalist brand of Islam was just the medium exploited by these tyrants to retain and gain power. Some of these strong men such as Mullah Omar, the Iranian Mullahs and members of the Saudi Royal family were ardent followers, while the more secular-at-heart rulers such as Bashir Assad and Saddam Hussein were more interested in using fundamentalist Islam's "unifying" benefits for personal gain.

But where to start? Donald Rumsfeld knew this answer even before hostilities in Afghanistan commenced when he ordered General Tommy Franks to dust off the military plans for invading and occupying Iraq. The amount of political capital available at the time necessitated diplomatic first steps, but the urgency and fervency with which America's enemies and other misguided souls opposed any of these efforts demonstrated that military options were almost inevitable. There was no greater adherent to these intentions than Saddam Hussein himself as he made preperations to drag the United States into a prolonged insurgent/guerilla war (read the Belmont Club's "War Plan Orange" for details).

Years of defying sanctions, breaking cease-fires and ambigious intentions over the procurement and production of weapons of mass destructions put fat targets on his chest and forehead. The world knew deep in its heart that it wasn't a matter of "if" it was a matter of "when" Saddam was going to get a swift smack in the mouth.

Attempts at diplomacy within the U.N. collapsed and the floodgates opened with an attempted decapitation strike in the heart of Bagdad. Three weeks later, U.S. troops were tearing down Saddam's statue and setting up headquarters in his palace, while supportive Arabs who hoped Allah would strike down the infidel, were confronted by a strong dose of reality with another humiliating beating.

Unfortunately, this would not be V-ME (Victory in the Middle East) Day, but yet another stepping stone that would be met with a hard dose of reality. The hornets' nest was stirred as the rag-tagged Islamic fundamentalists and punch-drunk Baathist fascists joined forces operationally to expel the foreign invaders. Their combined military capabilities would never do the job, but a prolonged game of cat-and-mouse, or hit-and-run, would force popular opinion in America to abandon the high ground they gained in Afghanistan and, now in Iraq.

Michael Moore, John Kerry, Richard Clarke, Dan Rather, Moveon.org and a terrorist attack in Spain in combination with car-bombs and RPG attacks against coalition troops and civilians came close, but ultimately unable to break American resolve. Bush won re-election and committed to staying the course. Soon the terrorist haven of Fallujah would be under American and British control paving the way to the historic day where Iraqis voted for their very own government.

These events in-and-of themselves did not singularly lead to the pushing of any further democratic movements. However, they shook the ground significantly enough so that the natural ebbs and flows in history would have a better chance of breaking in our favor. This was the very essence of U.S. efforts in Afghanistan and, ultimately, in Iraq.

Democratic rumblings are now growing in the Middle East. A lot has happened absent the U.S. lead invasion of Iraq to stimulate and stoke these embers, but as Totten points out, even though the solid link fades, the overall influence of invasion was so enormous that nothing in the Middle East can be seen without looking through the lenses of Iraq.

There are many events that can happen that will adversely affect America's goals (Iran remains intransigent and defiant in feverishly developing their nuclear program), but it is getting harder and harder argue against the imperfect but enormously positive influence that America has had on the region. For this, the price paid in blood by coalition troops and, by an even greater amount, Iraqi and Afghani citizens, was well worth it.

Posted by 10 fingers 6 strings at May 18, 2005 10:12 PM | TrackBack