We Can, and Must Win in Iraq

Riding on the coattails of Saint Cindy and a dubious Gallup Poll showing support for the war in Iraq at 38%, the anti-war crowd has turned up the heat on those that supported the intervention. Like always, their timing is impeccable, and there is a possibility that their miscalculation could be as bad as the time when Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean before the Iowa Caucus.

While the Left continues to peddle canards about what is really happening on the ground, our military, along with Iraqi Security forces, are really taking it to insurgency. Strategypage reports that their efforts are starting to produce some measureable results:

Suicide bombings have become less common, and arrests of terrorists have risen sharply in the past month. Actually, incarcerations have been climbing since last Fall, as more terrorists and gangsters are caught red-handed. Before that, many of the 50,000 arrests resulted in a brief interrogation, and release of the suspect. But now more bad people are being identified and kept incarcerated. Many of these are career criminals who had been freed by Saddam in 2002, or escaped in the confusion of the 2003 invasion. But the crime wave these thugs have generated in the past two years is coming to an end. The rampant criminality is the one thing all Iraqis are united in opposition to. More tribal vigilantes are being formed, and either killing gangsters, or pointing them out to police or coalition troops.

...Many potential prisoners, being hunted in their own towns and neighborhoods, have become more vicious in their attempts to terrorize their neighbors into supporting the cause. Sunni Arab leaders are increasingly subject to threats, and attacks. The long feared civil war within the Sunni Arab community is under way. It's actually been going on, and growing, for over a year. But now there are towns in western Iraq where armed factions regularly battle each other. Al Qaeda gangs are increasingly seen as "foreign occupiers", and attacked by nearly all factions in the Sunni Arab community.

I guess if one read the New York Times everyday, they would see nothing but a quagmiric mess with no hope in sight. Of course, all signs pointing to the source of this catestrophe lead to George Bush. For them, tt has always has been, not about terrorism, fanatical Islam, the Middle East, suppression of moderate Arabs or freedom, it's about Bush.

This is the fallacy in their thinking: when one man (or Bush and his "cabal" acting together as a singul unit) is charged with being directly responsible for so much, one is forced to simplify and round out the edges of the complexity on the ground in Iraq.

But Iraq cannot be cut and sliced cleanly (and this goes for those who supported the war and only see nothing but good). There are thousands of variables involved; some working dependently, others working independently from each other, but all panning out to an ultimate "reality." Bush is obviously a major player in this roll, but he is far from the only one who can effect the outcome there.

As the defeatists constantly refrain about an insurgency that "shows no sign of letting up," the U.S. military remains on the offensive. They have engaged in many battalion sized operations, while supporting Iraqi security forces in hundreds of smaller engagements. With each arrest they make, there is more intellegence gained, leading to even further arrests; car bomb factories and arms caches are discovered and put out of business. Al-Qaeda, who had been operating hand-and-hand with the Baathist resistence, are now starting to fight each other in Western Iraq. The Baathists have been trying to reestablish the minority Sunni domination, while Al-Qaeda longs for an Iraq that is run by strict fundamentalist, Islamic law. It was a marriage of convenience and neccessity, and now that the honeymoon is over, they are turning on each other.

By all measures, the insurgency is losing. They have not been able to effect or determine the outcome of any strategic goals and their unpopularity with ordinary Iraqis, due to the oh-so-popular bombing of innocent civilians, is rapidly increasing. If you are willing to bet on that hand, please join me for my weekly poker game so I can empty your bank account. Clearly you have no idea "when to fold 'em."

Now, as I said, this is a extremely complex situation. There is still a lot of potential for bad things to happen. Iran has put forth a large effort toward empowering fundamentalist Shiite Iraqis with money and arms. Many of the Shiite militias are made up of a minority of Islamic conservatives who are trying to eliminate and silence the majority of moderates. Also, there is rampant corruption that has exsisted in Arab society for a long time, however there are some signs that the population at large has a desire to see this change.

So, the Iraqi constitution is close to being finalized and unveiled. The Kurdish leaders want their own country and the Shiites seem willing to break Iraq into three countries. There is a chance this could happen, however I speculate that each side is just using this as a negotiating tactic to ensure their pull in a future Federal Iraq. Iraq is surrounded by enemies, and a breakup would not only weaken them further, it would leave them exposed. Most Iraqis are very clear about who has been supporting the insurgency in Iraq for the past 2 years.

The constitution is also in danger of giving fundamentalist Islam too much influence. This worries me greatly, however once the constitution is unveiled, it won't be official until the Iraqi people vote on it. I've been arguing on this blog that I think average Iraqis are much more moderate than their more organized conservative-leaning leadership, so I would still feel reasonably confident that a constitution that gives Islam too much influence will be voted down.

Truthfully, this scenario will cause me some serious anxiety in the near-term.

Anyway, back to my Lefty friends. I'll let former Democrat Scott Randolph more eloquently express where I am going with this:

The good little democrat in me tied the little noose around his neck and jumped off the stool. He just couldn’t take it anymore.

Take what? The whining. The constant whining by the extreme left about the reasons for war, the incompetence of this administration, and how we’ve all been lied to, and how we should pull out of Iraq immediately, because, *gulp* our soldiers were in danger.

...Here’s a breakdown of the way I see things:

-right or wrong, we’re at war. no amount of yelling will fix that now.
-we have to finish the job. HAVE TO. it may take another 1800 soldiers, but it has to be done
-whether or not we’re there for the right reason, we’ve done something great for that country

I never was a big fan of Bush. But, one thing I do believe….he honestly wants to make this country, and this world a better place. Think about it…the war almost cost him the election. If we hadn’t invaded Iraq, he’d have won in a landslide.

I think it’s just my personality that lead me to this decision. I think the left is too concerned with everyone’s immediate rights and needs, and refuses to sacrifice a bit of comfort and happiness in the present, for something that will make life better for everyone in the future. You can take the environmental stance on that, and I’d have no argument…but I think there enough conservatives concerned with that to make it a moot point.

Mostly, I’m just really pissed off. We’re in a crappy situation, and it’s time for all of America to stand together, put on the big boy pants, and get through the next few years.

Above I listed why I think we can still pull this thing off. If it does happen, there will be a lot of people sitting around with egg on their faces. Unfortunately, just as in the past, they will see no shame in it; they will wear it like a badge of honor.

Posted by 10 fingers 6 strings at August 20, 2005 09:07 AM | TrackBack