Al-Qaeda Sticks It's Head Out

In Iraq, it looks like al-Qaeda is asserting itself in ways that bely their strengths:

Fighters loyal to militant leader Abu Musab Zarqawi asserted control over the key Iraqi border town of Qaim on Monday, killing U.S. collaborators and enforcing strict Islamic law, according to tribal members, officials, residents and others in the town and nearby villages.

Residents said the foreign-led fighters controlled by Zarqawi, a Jordanian, apparently had been exerting authority in the town, within two miles of the Syrian border, since at least the start of the weekend. A sign posted at an entrance to the town declared, "Welcome to the Islamic Republic of Qaim."

Al-Qaeda's strength relies on it's unpredictability and the ability to operate as a losely connected movement under the radar. Al-Qaeda is better at playing the role of bombing soft-targets and slipping back into the populace. Not only are they good at spreading terror, they are masterful at frustrating a supierior enemy. While America desires a moment where all of al-Qaeda comes together to fight the Americans in an all-out fight, al-Qaeda normally disintegrates, retreats and regroups away from the scene.

So far, each time al-Qaeda decided to make a stand against U.S. forces, whether in Iraq or Afghanistan, they have been severely routed. These situations were always a test of America's will. For example, they turned Fallujah into a safe haven, because, just as they believed before September 11th, America would be too averse to casualties to follow through. Even though they expected America to attack, they believed that the bloody images and scenes of death on CNN would cause an uproar at home, thus causing the leadership to fall short.

They were wrong about Fallujah. The Marine-led offensive into the city routed al-Qaeda. Much of the leadership escaped before the offensive began, however those who remained were destroyed.

Most commentary outside of Iraq doesn't realize that al-Qaeda has no support within Iraq, but that much of the mixed signal coming from Iraqis has to do with the fact that they are still extremely fearful of them. Al-Qaeda is ruthless and promises brutalilty and death to anyone who won't support them. As long as it looks like America will waiver in it's support, the locals either offer "support" for al-Qaeda, or passivity. This is purely for survival.

However, with the offensive in Western Iraq that is still on-going, the local population is starting to believe that American forces are going to support them through this war. Prior to our operations there, it was unheard of to hear quotes from tribal leaders (especially Sunnis) like this:

Zarqawi's fighters have shot and killed nine men in public executions in the city center since the start of the weekend, accusing the men of being collaborators with U.S. forces, said Sheik Nawaf Mahallawi, a leader of the Albu Mahal, a Sunni Arab tribe that had clashed earlier with the foreign fighters.

Dozens of families were fleeing Qaim every day, Mahallawi said.

For local fighters now, "it would be insane to attack Zarqawi's people, even to shoot one bullet at them," the tribal leader said. "We hope the U.S. forces end this in the coming days. We want the city to go back to its normal situation."

The local Sunni fighters are incapable of matching al-Qaeda's sophistication and would be routed without U.S. support. Mahallawi knows that if the U.S. doesn't come to his rescue, he and his supporters are as good as dead.

Al-Qaeda has chosen to make their stand in Qaim to accomplish either of the following: to test America's will, if we back down, you can be sure the tribal leaders will be less likely to support us in any future endeavors. Or they will take the city over, spread terror, then dissolve away and retreat without being destroyed. They are testing America's capabilities and want the local population to know that America is incapable of protecting them from death. Either way, al-Qaeda feels like they gain.

Unfortunately, that is a pretty dangerous supposition. The squeeze is on, and al-Qaeda, not America is running against the clock. Unless they can get us to back down, we will squeeze them out very slowly. Don't look for any crescendos in this fight. We can only pick them away one at a time, but al-Qaeda is strategically losing. Their Muslim brethern have turned against them in force, it is now up to us to lead the way to finishing the job.

There is only one thing for us to do and the late Jimmy Valvano said it perfectly: "Don't Give Up...Don't Ever Give Up!"

UPDATE: Stephen Green picks up the same story and offers a broader solution.