En Prise

Despite large public outcries to the contrary, the United States and its allies have been tremendously successful in eliminating al-Qaeda's henchmen throughout the world. The process is long, tedious and full of days where nothing of importance happens. But over time, you learn where the snakes like to hide, what they are most likely to feed on, and then you trap them or them strike dead once they are vulnerable.

The reference to snakes was obviously done with purpose and malice on my part. However, the war against al-Qaeda expectedly continues to garner mostly backpage news. Harold Hutchison at Strategypage analyzes al-Qaeda's leadership status in light of the elimination of al-Qaeda's number three man, Abu Hamza Rabia:

...This strike, which took place in Pakistan, means that bin Laden and Abu Musab Zarqawi will have to find their third person for that slot in a period of seven months (Rabia’s predecessor, Abu Faraj Farj al-Liby, was captured in May). This is not the first time that a CIA Predator has scored a kill – in November, 2002, a CIA Predator killed Qaed Salim Sinan al-Harethi, the mastermind of the attack on the USS Cole as he and five other al Qaeda operatives were driving in their car.

This new vacancy in senior leadership positions reflects one of al Qaeda’s growing problems. As top-echelon elements of al Qaeda are killed, incapacitated, or captured, the talent pool dries up. Already, al Qaeda has been hobbled by attacks in Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Indonesia which have killed far more Moslem civilians than intended non-Moslem targets. As a result, al Qaeda has suffered a string of defeats as those who would have supported them instead drop a dime.

This has led to all but one of al Qaeda’s original Saudi leadership ending up either dead or in custody. The new al-Qaeda structure is composed of members that are primarily in their 20s. These twenty-something terrorists do not have the experience or training of their predecessors. In Jordan, only Lawrence Hamid Rashid Muhanna is still at large. Al Qaeda’s senior leadership has remained somewhat intact, but many of their on-scene operators are being captured or killed. Al Qaeda’s murder-suicide bombings kill off the operatives who manage to pull them off, another way the talent pool is depleted.

The reduction in leadership naturally leads to an organization being run by people who are inexperienced, and thus less effective. However, there is something more that our counter-terrorism efforts can hope to gain out this development: penetration. Al-Qaeda over the years successfully managed to keep their core sealed from the outside, so in combination with CIA's overeliance on technology versus HUMINT (Human Intelligence) over the last 20 years, the CIA has been unable to get much first hand knowledge of the world's deadliest enemy.

This is all changing. As Hutchison points out, Al-Qaeda's operational leaders are being decimated. Bin-Laden, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, and even Iraq's Abu Musab Zarqawi, are going to have to replace these leaders with men who haven't had the time to go through the screening process. Expanding on Hutchison's observation, in order to ensure confidence that their new lieutenants (as they are so fond of calling them) are not spies, al-Qaeda's senior leadership needs to come out of hiding, exposing themselves to capture or a Predator drone. If they chose to avoid this, and remain in their caves, then the CIA has a golden opportunity to infiltrate their ranks as new, unknown and inexperienced loyalists are left to do the rooting out.

If this was a chess match, this method of attacking al-Qaeda would put al-Qaeda's leadership en prise. En prise is when you attack a piece from multiple directions, finally putting your opponent in a position where if he moves his piece in any direction, he will be captured. If this piece is a King or a Queen, you bring in another attacking piece to finish off the job. This speculative combination of our military and our intellegence agencies could put the United States in position to bring in the last fatal blow to al-Qaeda's King.

Unfortunately, this doesn't end the war, but is sure as hell would make some substantive difference in terms of propaganda and qualitative progress. Another feature would be a probable cure for a few Congressmen who have been infected with cases of arm-chair generalship.

At least for the short-term.