Iraqis Getting Ready to Vote...Again

We are three days away from the third election in Iraq. With this in mind, the media has been surveying and polling the Iraqi population in attempts to predict the results, and also to gauge the general psychology of Iraqi voters. This story by ABC, which discusses the poll results, is fascinating in not only its raw results, but also in the way a mainstream U.S. media outlet interprets them:

Surprising levels of optimism prevail in Iraq with living conditions improved, security more a national worry than a local one, and expectations for the future high. But views of the country's situation overall are far less positive, and there are vast differences in views among Iraqi groups — a study in contrasts between increasingly disaffected Sunni areas and vastly more positive Shiite and Kurdish provinces.

An ABC News poll in Iraq, conducted with Time magazine and other media partners, includes some remarkable results: Despite the daily violence there, most living conditions are rated positively, seven in 10 Iraqis say their own lives are going well, and nearly two-thirds expect things to improve in the year ahead.

Surprisingly, given the insurgents' attacks on Iraqi civilians, more than six in 10 Iraqis feel very safe in their own neighborhoods, up sharply from just 40 percent in a poll in June 2004. And 61 percent say local security is good — up from 49 percent in the first ABC News poll in Iraq in February 2004.

Nonetheless, nationally, security is seen as the most pressing problem by far; 57 percent identify it as the country's top priority. Economic improvements are helping the public mood.

ABC News is truly shocked (I won't accuse them of dismay) that the Iraqi people are positive about their overall hope for the future. The media has fallen victim to their own meme. Their constant coverage for the last few years has done nothing but view the strategic situation in Iraq through the IED and the suicide bomber. The violence is mostly regionalized (although, the violence is pretty major where it lies), and the large part of the population that hasn't opened their doors to violent extremists and Baathist reminants, have enjoyed relative stability.

Secondly, they do not understand the survival-mode psychology of the average Iraqi who has decades of oppression from a bloody tyrant at the fore-front of their minds. During the initial invasion, we were greeted as liberators, then the planned insurgency picked up, and Iraqis weren't sure who was going to win. The luke-warm, or flat out dismissal of our efforts then were seized upon by the media as being indicative of a population that really saw us the enemy. That wasn't true at all. Reality was, Iraqis want to side with the winner regardless of their long-term interest. When it seemed like there was a possibility that the United States wasn't able to stick it out or win, Iraqis went into survival mode.

This is why I think that the Battle of Mosul will be looked at by historians as a turning point against the insurgency. If you have been reading and following events in Iraq, and you haven't read Michael Yon's dispatches on the battle for Mosul, you MUST read these following stories:

The Battle For Mosul: Reality Check
Battle For Mosul: Progress Report
Battle For Mosul III: Prelude
Battle For Mosul IV

Michael returned to Mosul after the division he was embedded with was sent back to the U.S. There he covered the election on the Constitution. What he saw was very positive. First hand he witnessed, in action, American policy for victory. Jump into the middle of the baddest places in Iraq, beat the piss out of the insurgents in front of the local population, then hold the ground with the new Iraqi Security Forces. Michael describes how the American's did this in Mosul, and how the population positively responded and are now actively aiding in their efforts. Now, those living in Mosul are hopeful about their future.

However, Michael's influence, for the time being, is minimal. He is not writing for the NY Times, or ABC News. He is an independent reporter in Iraq on his own dime. News junkies like me that scour the internet looking for any reporting that doesn't orginate out of the Green Zone in Bagdad don't exactly fit into the nation as a whole.

So, ABC news is now surprised to find that Iraqis are hopeful about the future. If they had Michael Yon working for them, maybe they wouldn't be as shocked.

Ok, so now the bad news. The United States is apparently losing the popularity contest that is so important to Western ears:

Other views, moreover, are more negative: Fewer than half, 46 percent, say the country is better off now than it was before the war. And half of Iraqis now say it was wrong for U.S.-led forces to invade in spring 2003, up from 39 percent in 2004.

The number of Iraqis who say things are going well in their country overall is just 44 percent, far fewer than the 71 percent who say their own lives are going well. Fifty-two percent instead say the country is doing badly.

There's other evidence of the United States' increasing unpopularity: Two-thirds now oppose the presence of U.S. and coalition forces in Iraq, 14 points higher than in February 2004. Nearly six in 10 disapprove of how the United States has operated in Iraq since the war, and most of them disapprove strongly. And nearly half of Iraqis would like to see U.S. forces leave soon.

Specifically, 26 percent of Iraqis say U.S. and other coalition forces should "leave now" and another 19 percent say they should go after the government chosen in this week's election takes office; that adds to 45 percent. Roughly the other half says coalition forces should remain until security is restored (31 percent), until Iraqi security forces can operate independently (16 percent), or longer (5 percent).

The poll does not include how Iraqis feel about al-Qaeda. The United States is not there to give everyone warm and fuzzy feelings, they are there to eliminate and discourage extremists that have been able to operate with relative autonomy for far too long. Baathists, members of al-Qaeda, criminals, whatever. We are there to show them that they can't beat us, and that the Iraqi population will soon be able to rely upon a Security Force, made up of their own people.

So, who is winning this war? The American objectives are winning in the polls that really matter: how willing Iraqis are to join the political process, their feelings towards violence as a means to their ends, their support for a Federal Constitution, and their willingness to keep Iraq as a unified country. The Sunnis are turning their backs on the murderous extremists to join the political process, and 70% of the people are hoping to vote in a few days. I'd say that whether or not the Iraqis are ready to start playing the Star Spangled Banner in conjuntion with their National Anthem at soccer games is irrelevant. Our objectives are slowly being accomplished, yet I can't blame Iraqis for wanting this all to be over with. They've endured a lot, and are going to have to stick it out for a little longer, but I think history is going look rather fondly on our efforts in Iraq.

Evidence of confidence in their security is growing strongly:

Despite the growing gap between Sunni and Shiite provinces, confidence in some institutions has risen overall, particularly confidence in the Iraqi Army, up from 39 percent in November 2003 to 67 percent now; and in the police, up from 45 percent to 68 percent (but stable since last year).

This metric is strategically more important than how Iraqis feel about Americans. We aren't going to be there in the long-term, and somebody needs to ensure that al-Qaeda and the extremists won't come back to murder on the scale seen during their reign of terror. People are feeling more confident in this, and this number will grow as they get better and better. This was a Herculean task that the U.S. military engaged in, and the results are starting to materialize in the field and in the minds of those whose lives are dependent on it.

Popularity Isn't the Be-All/End-All

Remember, the United States isn't exactly "popular" in formerly occupied Germany right now. Would we call our efforts to rebuild that country a failure? Last time I checked, the Czechs and the French aren't worrying about legions of German troops overrunning their countries again.

Sometimes, especially in geopolitics, popularity and getting people to do what you need them to do are mutually exclusive. Which would you choose?

* By the way, as an FYI, here are the news organizations that were behind the polling data:

This survey was sponsored by ABC News with partners Time, the BBC, the Japanese network NHK and the German newsmagazine Der Spiegel, with fieldwork by Oxford Research International. It consists of in-person interviews with a random national sample of 1,711 Iraqis from early October through mid-November.

These organizations have, for the most part, reported with a negative view towards the United States since the war began, so even though I don't think they have "lied" or "fudged" any of these published numbers, I think it is worth it to keep that nugget of information in mind when reading the poll results in terms of which questions weren't asked, and into what context they ultimately need to be put into.

UPDATE: C.S. Scott expresses his view on how Iraqis are using demonstrating new found freedoms:

It's important that we retain sight of ultimate goal, the standing up of Iraq as a democratic nation and productive member of the international community. When 80 percent of Iraqi's say that want U.S. forces out of Iraq, I welcome that view. Never in the past would they have been free to express those type of sentiments against the Hussein regime.

Good stuff.

Posted by 10 fingers 6 strings at December 12, 2005 08:39 AM | TrackBack