Political Developments in Iraq Cont.

(Via the Belmont Club) Robert Mayer, at Publius Pundit, correctly anticipated the latest political scenario in Iraq:

The sectarian killings taking place on behalf of the Sadrists and other UIA affiliated militias are, in a sense, a threat to the others that Jaafari will become prime minister whether they like it or not. They want to keep power and will do anything it takes to keep it. This is why they have called the new Sunni-Kurd-secular umbrella group to bloc Jaafari’s nomination a coup. They have also asserted it to be Jaafari’s “right” to govern simply because they nominated him. This is why they no longer support America’s presence in the country — despite formerly being its staunchest supporters — because America no longer supports their monopoly on government.

It is the fundamentalist branch of the UIA itself that has caused the political gridlock, but it is the more nationalist SCIRI, the smaller parties, and the independents who are finally speaking out and may be ready to break with the UIA in order to support an Abdul-Mahdi candidacy for the premiership. They know it is no longer in their interests to support an alliance in which they do not benefit. They are seeing that working with the Sunnis, Kurds, and secular to form a national unity government will not only strengthen the country, but isolate pro-Iranian elements within the Shia political elite.

I predicted this would happen last month and even before that. But at that time I warned you all to watch for this to happen. It’s happening. Now watch as Jaafari’s calls for Shia unity go unheard as real political pluralism and cooperation begin to unfold. The only problem now is what the isolated fundamentalist Shia will do with their militias once they lose power.

What is happening is move to the center, and nationalism is carrying more weight than alliances with dictatorial neighbors. Good call on Mayer's part, but I'd like to think about the open ended question he posed to us: "what (will) the isolated fundamentalist Shia will do with their militias once they lose power?"

Omar at Iraq the Model reports:

On the other hand it seems that the radical elements have made up their mind to enter yet another confrontation, after putting redlines on some blocs and rejecting any discussion concerning replacing Jafari, today according to al-Arabiya TV, the Sadrists have issued a warning saying they will withdraw from the political process if Jafari is replaced by another candidate. By doing this, they are even opposing the majority opinion of the UIA as it's been made public that major powers inside the bloc gave Jafari a 3-day deadline as a last chance for him to try to convince the other blocs with his program and win their acceptance, otherwise he must step down. Of course this doesn't mean the Sadrists will withdraw to sit at home and watch others form a government but it means they will fight those who oppose their vision. In fact lately I've been hearing some Sdar followers say they predict a large-scale offensive to target Sadr city and the Mehdi Army soon and that the ranks of the Mehdi Army are kept at full alert to respond to any such offensive.

Omar reports that there is a strong chance that the Sadrists and their Mahdi Army are going to drop out of the political process and possibly fight it out in the hopes of causing further instablity.

If this happens, then the fundamentalists dropped the ball big-time with their political gambit. Tyrannical minded people cannot understand the concept of wait-and-see political compromise, and they have now exposed their soft underbelly by outwardly threatening harm towards those that oppose their power. If al-Sadr and Jaafari were more astute, they would have realized that their power lies within the context of the political process, and not by threatening from the outside.

The American military, for the most part, cannot open up and directly engage these elements, as they have tacitly joined the political process that the Americans have worked so hard to uphold. It is very difficult for the military to operate against these militias without causing some major instability within the brittle government. However, the political process is playing out, the fundamentalists are in danger of losing the power they initially had, and are threatening harm on those that are allying against them. If they get so agitated that they believe they can start a fight outside the ring, they are in big trouble.

If they pull out, the Sadrists will stand outside of the legitimate government. The Iraqi Army and the American military can then go in an crush these lightweights with impunity. To further their problems, this time the Iraqi Army will be able to go in and clean these cowards out when the go running to the Holy Shrines like they did in Najaf back in 2004.

Either way, it looks like the moderates are going to win. They either gain a unified government run by nationalist Iraqis focused on forming a legitimate, federal government with a marginalized Iranian backed group sitting in the background with their fangs declawed, or the fundamentalists continue to overplay their hand and get completely defanged, declawed and buried by taking this fight to the streets.