Iraq - In Focus

News and analysis about what is happening in Iraq right now is pretty thin as the media attention has shifted to Lebannon and London. Even my regular stops have shifted focus, as the news there is fresh, as opposed to the three plus years we've been slugging it out in Mesopotamia.

The support for general thesis that I've been arguing in this blog regarding Iraq has predominantly focused on analyzing what is happening there by adding some arm chair military analysis, and most importantly, putting it into some kind of current and historical context. Almost all of the reporting since the beginning of this war has lacked this crucial perspective, and I don't proport to be any alternative source of media other than just being a guy that's is trying to get his mind around a really complicated situation and is writing on a blog so others who are a hell of a lot smarter than me can interact and refine my thoughts.

So, what have we seen in Iraq so far, and where are we going? The war sits in three phases: 1. Invasion, 2. Sunni Insurgency, 3. Civil War.

The first two phases have been won. The American-led Coalition toppled Saddam in three weeks, but then shifted to fighting a long, slogging Sunni insurgency that was dominated by al-Qaeda. The Anbar Campaign in Western Iraq demonstrated just how quickly the U.S. Military can solve problems when they are given operational and political control, as they choked the supply-lines, retook towns and cities along the Euphrates by striking the insurgents and replacing them with newly trained Iraqi Security forces. Additionally, they built relationships with Sunni-tribal leaders and encouraged them to join the elected government--which they did.

As the insurgents lost their grip, and came to realize that striking U.S. troops and the trained Iraqi forces amounted to suicide, they refocused on hitting the hated Shia-Muslim majority.

To say that American intervention caused the civil war is false. Iraq has been in a civil war for much longer than the current American involvement. What American involvement has done, is reveal to the world that there is no such thing as Arab unity. Arab unity only occurs when one Islamic sect has enough control over the other to force them into a unified voice. This isn't quite the hearts and minds campaign we've attempted, and rightfully so.

Al-Qaeda hit the Shias hard, and the now stronger and more numerous Shia have hit back. The revenge killings and death squads have been in Iraq since the beginning, but it has been escalating at an enormous rate with each bomb that strikes a holy shrine. The Sunnis who have finally realized that there is no way for them to win, due to their numerical and resource disadvantage, are fleeing the country. Those who cannot leave, are now caught in the middle of what is shaping up to be the most crucial point in the war.

The lesson in Anbar demonstrated that above all, security needs are tantamount to calming the violence. You win hearts and minds by ensuring that citizens are not getting blown up when they go to the market, or the mosque. Al-Qaeda and the remaining Iraqi insurgents don't stick around very long when American troops are actively engaging them in force. So far, with all the violence in Bagdad, we've been content to let the vastly improved, Iraqi Army handle the problem, and they've failed.

It is time for the Americans to reassert control in Bagdad, by engaging elements (Shia and Sunni), who refuse to lay down their weapons and join the government. After areas are cleared, the Iraqi Army can hold territory won, and keep the peace by not discriminating between ethnic lawlessness. So far, the IA has demonstrated the ability to do this, unlike the police force.

The American effort to rebuild the country is going to hinge on getting Bagdad under control. Do our political leaders have the guts to let the Military follow the formula that defeated a viscious enemy earlier? If we don't win back Bagdad, we lose. Support at home is waning everyday, and it may get to the point that our leaders won't have the political capital to do what is necessary to win (directly engage the lawless elements).

We aren't looking at an irredeemable situation yet, but we better start moving fast before it gets to that point.